The risk of further cuts to Russian pipeline gas supplies to the European Union has increased since yesterday after Russia’s state-owned gas producer Gazprom warned that Russia could impose sanctions against Ukraine’s Naftogaz.
Amidst the sanctions omposed to Russia by the United States and Western allies, increased attention has been placed on Russian crude flows, especially on the reshuffling of their voyages and potential diversions or distressed cargoes. At Kpler, the market data analyst team uses a combination of proprietary data, tracking algorithms, market information, port reports and a robust methodology to track these evolving flows.
Germany is the EU’s largest consumer of Russian natural gas but the threat of weaponizing Russian supplies as we approach winter. To put the volumes at stake into perspective, this article provides a quantitative assessment of the pre-war baseline, the current status quo, as well as possible future developments. Our conclusion examines the degree to which measures that are currently being taken by Germany can counter cuts in Russian supply.
Kuwait's Al-Zour Refinery has started operations at one of its CDUs a few days ago. The 615 kbd refinery is one of the largest globally, representing the most significant addition to global refining capacity in years and the largest addition until Nigeria’s Dangote plant eventually starts up later this decade.
The fallout from the war in Ukraine is causing supply tightness across a number of commodities. Ammonia might be the most impacted of all.
As Russian crude oil exports could decrease by 1.5 mbd from next month onwards according to our estimates, we look to what extent US shale production could offset the impact thanks to its business model with high flexibility and reactivity.
A few laden Yamal LNG-chartered vessels that were earlier signalling their arrival at ports in France and Spain are waiting for orders to sail to new destinations suggesting a pre-emptive move by Yamal LNG ahead of a possible ban by the EU on Russian ships entering its ports.
The Russian war in Ukraine is in its seventh day and financial sanctions on Russian individuals and banks are set to cripple the financial sector. Energy exports have not been the target of sanctions and even though the effect has made buyers and shippers wary, trade volumes have been unmoved so far as current loadings would have traded and had vessels fixed before the invasion. But, with Urals hitting a new record discount to Brent, finding buyers over the coming weeks is set to become increasingly difficult.
Russia’s Sovcomflot-owned 172,600 m3 Christophe de Margerie ice-class LNG carrier has diverted away from the UK and is sailing to France’s 8 mtpa Montoir LNG receiving facility, following the UK’s decision to ban ships with Russian connections entry to its ports.