The share of global LNG in the European Union’s gas import mix rose to unprecedented levels in 2022 as the bloc increasingly relies on LNG to replace most of the lost Russian pipeline supplies.
Europe remains highly dependent on Russian clean product exports, particularly gasoil/diesel. As we head towards the embargo, it was expected that reliance had fallen, not risen. The ban will, however, bring about a change in global trade patterns for both middle and light distillates.
As Urals flows to Europe are drying up, being partly replaced by a ramp-up and re-routing of Johan Sverdrup deliveries, Russian crude supply should decline from December onwards. Moreover, a short-term supply disruption was resolved, after a dispute between the Turkish government and a club of WoS maritime insurers caused a backlog of 15-30 vessels in the Turkish straits.
Russia’s single largest export pipeline to the EU, Nord Stream 1, will remain unavailable this winter. The pipeline’s unplanned outage was extended until April. The EU is striving to replace the lost Nord Stream 1 supplies and overall most of the lost Russian pipeline supplies with global LNG.
Crude ton-miles began the year trending below the five-year average, but since VLCC exports began to rise in June, growth has been rapid. While the order of the major VLCC routes has been consistent compared with previous years, there have been upheavals in the Suezmax and Aframax markets following the Russian war in Ukraine. Crude tanker demand is on course to finish the year on a high, but the prospects for next year are less rosy.
On October 30th the Russian Federation suspended their participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Instead of freezing the current backlog of laden vessels, Turkish and UN delegations have instead reacted swiftly by increasing inspections in the Marmara Sea.
The Black Sea is one of the regions the early users of Kpler Grains & Oilseeds watch the most. Let's have a look at a few interesting moves identified by Madeleine Overgaard, Grains Analyst.
Australia's refined product imports have surged in the first nine months of the year, as our flow data show. However, as the region becomes increasingly import reliant, and trade flows change, we would not be surprised to see the region competing for volumes to ensure its energy needs are met.
The risk of further cuts to Russian pipeline gas supplies to the European Union has increased since yesterday after Russia’s state-owned gas producer Gazprom warned that Russia could impose sanctions against Ukraine’s Naftogaz.