Kpler Refinery Monthly Report for May 2025

Refinery Operations: Global refinery outages peaked in April amid seasonal maintenance surges and are expected to remain elevated in May

• Global refinery offline capacity jumped by 1.6 Mbd in April to 9.0 Mbd (as per IIR), driven by heavy spring maintenance and some unplanned events. Planned turnarounds remained the key driver, though overall downtime stayed around 1.1 Mbd below last year’s levels.
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• Looking ahead, offline capacity is expected to edge lower by 100 kbd in May to 8.8 Mbd, before dropping more sharply by 1.3 Mbd in June to 7.5 Mbd (Kpler Estimate), and further easing to 5.8 Mbd by July (Kpler Estimate), as refiners ramp up runs into the peak summer demand season.
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• North America: Outages Peak in April, Set to Ease in May.
  North American outages climbed to 2.5 Mbd in April as per IIR, reflecting ongoing spring turnarounds at key sites like Valero Jean Gaulin, BP Cherry Point, PBF Martinez, and Flint Hills Rosemount. With seasonal maintenance nearing completion, outages are forecast to fall by at least 1 Mbd in May, clearing the path for stronger crude intake and boosting utilization toward summer peaks.
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• In Latin America, Brazil’s refinery outages (as per IIR) eased as maintenance at RNEST and Isaac Sabba refineries wrapped up, as per IIR Energy data, allowing operations to ramp up. However, maintenance work at other Petrobras sites is expected to keep overall offline capacity elevated through 2025.
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• FSU: Outages Climb on Spring Maintenance, Drone Damage Impact Fades.
  FSU outages rose to 780 kbd in April (IIR), driven by an intense spring turnaround season across Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Outages are set to rise further to 1.0 Mbd in May, as per IIR Energy and Kpler estimates. While earlier drone attacks disrupted several Russian refineries in Q1, almost all damaged plants are now back online—current outages are mainly due to planned maintenance.
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• Europe: Outages Ease but Remain Elevated in May
  European outages dipped (as per IIR) to 1.4 Mbd in April, down from March’s 1.6 Mbd, as refineries like ExxonMobil Port Jerome, OMV Burghausen, BayernOil, and Repsol Petronor completed turnarounds. However, downtime is expected to hold steady through May, with new maintenance balancing the restarts. The fire-hit CDU at Motor Oil Hellas’s Corinth refinery remains offline, with repairs delayed until August. After an extended period of high outages since February, Europe’s downtime should gradually decline from late May onwards.
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• Asia: Outages Surge Further on China-Led Maintenance
  Asian refinery outages continued to climb in April (as per IIR), rising by nearly 920 kbd to reach 3.1 Mbd, driven largely by China, which accounted for 50% of total outages. Alongside China, significant turnarounds were seen in Malaysia, Japan, and India, including at Nippon Mizushima Refinery,  Petronas Kertih, RAPID, ENEOS Chiba, and Reliance Jamnagar. China's downtime alone surged to 1.6 Mbd, the highest since April 2022. Looking ahead, Asia’s outages are expected to climb further to 4.0 Mbd, with refinery maintenance projected to peak at 2.0 Mbd in China by May—the highest level since June 2021, according to IIR.

World Offline capacity (Kbd)

Source: Kpler and IIR

Global Refining Capacity Expansions and Key Projects:-Global refining capacity will expand through 2025–2027, driven by projects in Asia, Africa, Mexico and the Middle East, though ramp-up delays and closures elsewhere will temper net growth.Africa

• Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery: Despite RFCC issues and related maintenance, the 650 kbd refinery is making steady progress. Dangote’s RFCC unit faced persistent issues—hot spots, separator inefficiencies, and cooling challenges—keeping utilization at 45–50% and capping throughput at 50–55% (Kpler). Unplanned maintenance in April–May extended longer than planned, with restart activities starting early May. This consolidated effort aims to avoid further outages in June, with Kpler forecasting stable operations and gradual supply recovery from June onward.

• Mexico’s Dos Bocas Refinery: Continues to face challenges and is still in the testing phase, with a cautious commercial startup now targeted for Q2 2025. Full ramp-up is expected by 2026, but operational risks remain high.

• BAPCO’s Sitra Refinery (Bahrain): Expansion underway to increase capacity from 267 kbd to 379 kbd, including the commissioning of new units like the RHCK, aiming for cleaner fuel production. Major milestones are expected through Q2 2025 to early 2026.

• China: Continuing capacity additions at Yulong, Zhenhai, and Daxie, but with closures such as Dalian's 200 kbd CDU balancing the additions.

• India: Set for strong capacity growth to 5,935 kbd by end-2027, led by multiple large-scale projects at Barmer, Panipat, and Numaligarh Refinery Limited.

• Indonesia & Thailand: Major expansions at Balikpapan (Indonesia) and Sriracha (Thailand) are progressing, aiming for cleaner fuel outputs and increased distillate yield.

Key refinery closures:

• INEOS Grangemouth (UK, 150 kbd): Closed in April 2025; now an import terminal, worsening the UK’s middle distillate deficit.
• LyondellBasell Houston (268 kbd): Fully decommissioned as of March 2025.
• Shell Wesseling (Germany, 140 kbd): Phased shutdown by Q2 2025
• BP Gelsenkirchen-Scholven (Germany, 70 kbd): To shut down by Q3 2025.
• Phillips 66 Los Angeles (133 kbd): To cease operations by end-2025.
• Valero Benicia (California): Planned closure of crude processing by Q1 2026.

These closures reflect accelerated rationalization of older, less competitive refineries, particularly in Europe, China, and the US, driving structural shifts in regional fuel balances.

World: Primary refining capacity additions (kbd)

Source: Kpler

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The Kpler Refinery Monthly Report is a comprehensive review of the global refining landscape, focusing on refinery outages, maintenance schedules, greenfield and brownfield capacity developments, and closures. The report leverages Kpler's data and IIR Energy inputs to provide both current insights and forward-looking estimates on refinery operations globally.

The full May report contains:

• Refinery Operations: Global refinery outages peaked in April amid seasonal maintenance surges and are expected to remain elevated in May
• Refining Expansions: Global refining capacity will expand through 2025–2027, driven by projects in Asia, Africa, Mexico and the Middle East, though ramp-up delays and closures elsewhere will temper net growth.
• Closures: 765 kbd of CDU capacity (Outright) is set to shut down in 2025, marking a notable contraction in global refining capacity.
  
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