EU member states agreed to continue cutting their gas demand by 15% compared to the five-year average until Mar. 31, 2024. The emergency legislation started applying in August 2022 to help the bloc refill its gas stocks and mitigate its unprecedented gas shortage following the Russian pipeline supply cuts.
OPEC+ members remain committed to keeping output quotas unchanged until the end of this year, with the group expected to gradually take back market share over time as non-OPEC sources of supply run out of steam.
The Netherlands’ plans to boost its LNG import capacity by a quarter to 30 bn m3 a year by 2026 could allow the country to fully replace the 9 bn m3 of Russian gas it imported prior to Russia’s export cuts to the EU. Like several other EU countries, the Netherlands is turning to LNG to help ensure its security of gas supply while also implementing measures to cut gas demand in the short and long term.
The normalisation of diplomatic relations between the two Middle Eastern powerhouses is a bearish event for flat prices. The main impact is going to be seen in the Yemen war, removing some risk premium due to higher costs of insuring Saudi oil cargoes and its onshore infrastructure’s exposition to attacks. In the long run, the deal could also result in more production from Iran and Yemen. Finally, it is an essential foreign policy success for China but is yet to mark the beginning of a new era.
We have repeatedly called for a sustained opening of the transatlantic gasoline arbitrage in order to help ease the tightness seen in the US market. But is our freight-adjusted arb incentive the best measure to look at? By re-calculating the direct blending of ethanol into margins and arb estimates for a refiner producing and distributing E10, we find that not only are there gains to be made in terms of profitability but also that arbitrage conditions are already much more favorable than those for regular gasoline.
The European Union is on track to jointly buy around 10 bn m3 of gas this year, or roughly three-quarters of its mandatory target. The bloc agreed to start joint gas and LNG purchases in April to help ensure stocks are refilled ahead of next winter when supply is expected to remain tight. The EU is also contemplating expanding its voluntary 15% cut in demand until next year as another measure to tackle the current energy crisis.
Three out of the four LNG import terminals in France are offline for a week amid a national strike affecting multiple sectors in the country. The terminals affected represent over 60% of the French LNG import capacity. LNG is essential for the security of supply of France and its regional neighbors.
February marks the group’s highest combined level of oil exports in a year. OPEC+ oil exports jumped by 612 kbd m/m in February to 28.1 Mbd (excluding Iran and Venezuela) despite a large decline of 375 kbd from the group’s non-OPEC countries. On the other side, OPEC members increased shipped volumes by 826 kbd, driven by a major uptick from Iraq (+390 kbd m/m), Saudi Arabia (+250 kbd), Nigeria (+137 kbd) and Libya (+135 kbd).
Through the 2H February, spot corn and wheat prices underwent the largest selloff since early December on an optimistic 2023/2024 production outlook and concerns surrounding the macroeconomy. This is certainly a positive development for those hoping food inflation, which remains at sky high levels, could show signs of easing. Nonetheless, prices have attempted a small rally through early-March, a reflection the market could be oversold. Seaborne trade flows, especially for corn, struggled mightily in February, pacing well under year earlier levels. This update dives into the specifics.
Global jet fuel demand continues its post-pandemic recovery, but predictably, the regions that began to open up first have seen the most robust improvements. The US and Europe will drive the net balance into deficit in the second half of the year, while Asia lags behind.
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Clean tanker rates lifted from multi-month lows last week. The fundamentals of the clean market were arguably not as bad as the decline in rates suggested so an increase was due. But, with over 40% of Russian clean exports since the EU ban heading to the Mediterranean and Black Sea, expectations rates will push on higher will be tempered
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Germany’s third LNG import terminal completed its first commercial delivery on Feb. 16. The country is fast-tracking the launch of several floating terminals between this winter and the next to help replace the lost Russian pipeline supplies as fast as possible but these new capacities alone will not be enough.
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Double deal drives Kpler’s innovation in maritime data and analytics.
As the first of the oil majors publish their annual results in 2022, we take the opportunity to extract the key takeaways from these releases. After a very strong start to 2022 within both the up and downstream segments of the market, it is no surprise that earnings came in at historical record highs finishing at nearly double the levels realized through 2021.
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The Netherlands’ gas transmission system operator Gasunie has advised the Dutch government to keep Groningen, the EU’s largest gas field, open at minimal production levels until further notice instead of closing it down in October as currently planned. This is to help mitigate security of supply risks as the country’s additional LNG import capacities have not yet replaced all the lost Russian pipeline supplies.
The Chinese reopening has certainly injected a fresh set of uncertainties into a market already overrun with unknowns. In the weeks since China has undone much of the zero-Covid policies in place for more than two years, mobility has shown clear signs of picking up and yet, refinery runs surged to new highs months earlier.
With the looming physical tightness of ULSD in Europe, refiners in the wider area are already starting to look at some creative refining to try and capitalize on the attractive economics. The upcoming length in off-spec diesel might just offer some respite to Europe after it goes through the process of phasing out imports from Russia, once the embargo kicks in.
Food inflation has taken hold across the world. In places like America and Europe, food prices were up by more than 10% y/y in December. Nonetheless, the situation seems to be improving. Wheat prices have eased considerably off the highs seen in the initial months following Russia's invasion. Food inflation in m/m terms is already showing signs of a slowdown. The grain deal, which came into effect last August, is clearly having an impact. Ukraine managed to ship 4.75 Mt in total seaborne wheat tonnage through the final five months of the year.
The UK’s North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) closed its latest round of exploration licenses for offshore gas blocks, among which four priority areas with known reserves could start producing in 18 months. This could limit the UK’s reliance on LNG.
Nigeria LNG continues to operate its 22.2 mtpa plant on Bonny Island at a reduced rate as a force majeure declared in October on upstream supplies remains in place.
The share of global LNG in the European Union’s gas import mix rose to unprecedented levels in 2022 as the bloc increasingly relies on LNG to replace most of the lost Russian pipeline supplies.
EU LNG imports reached monthly and annual all-time highs in December and 2022 as the bloc increasingly relies on LNG to replace most of the lost Russian pipeline supplies.
Europe remains highly dependent on Russian clean product exports, particularly gasoil/diesel. As we head towards the embargo, it was expected that reliance had fallen, not risen. The ban will, however, bring about a change in global trade patterns for both middle and light distillates.
As Urals flows to Europe are drying up, being partly replaced by a ramp-up and re-routing of Johan Sverdrup deliveries, Russian crude supply should decline from December onwards. Moreover, a short-term supply disruption was resolved, after a dispute between the Turkish government and a club of WoS maritime insurers caused a backlog of 15-30 vessels in the Turkish straits.
Chinese clean product exports hit a record high of 1.6 Mbd in November. Most of this was shipped on MRs, increasing demand by over 200% from September levels. Regional vessel supply has been insufficient and surging rates have helped pull in more vessels to service rampant demand. With the MR fleet more widely distributed, rates should stay elevated over the coming months.
Norwegian producer Equinor will invest in infrastructure upgrades to boost gas production. The firm has been trying to boost exports to Europe, its main export market, which is currently facing a severe gas shortage as it pivots away from Russian gas.
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As the dust settles on November crude exports, the impact of winter storms appears to have halted a three-month consecutive streak of record monthly exports. But there is one record achieved in November – that of a high watermark for daily crude exports. On 17 November, after a lone 693 kb loading on the previous day from Houston, some 12.45 Mb were loaded across five ports – the highest volume since the US crude export ban was lifted in late 2015.
Russia’s single largest export pipeline to the EU, Nord Stream 1, will remain unavailable this winter. The pipeline’s unplanned outage was extended until April. The EU is striving to replace the lost Nord Stream 1 supplies and overall most of the lost Russian pipeline supplies with global LNG.
Front month calendar spreads show that Friday's selloff hit crude harder than products. That being said, hedge funds likely continued to liquidate long positions in ICE gasoil, after selling 6,200 contracts in the week ending November 15th.
Crude ton-miles began the year trending below the five-year average, but since VLCC exports began to rise in June, growth has been rapid. While the order of the major VLCC routes has been consistent compared with previous years, there have been upheavals in the Suezmax and Aframax markets following the Russian war in Ukraine. Crude tanker demand is on course to finish the year on a high, but the prospects for next year are less rosy.
Oil markets have rallied last week despite a yet still hawkish tone from Jerome Powell, the FED governor. Rumours around China potentially lifting its sticky zero-covid policy have helped propel front-month prices for Brent by 6% in four days to just under $99/bbl. However, markets could be jumping the gun too early. Chinese authorities have tempered some hope about a turnaround in the country’s zero-covid policy.
US gasoil inventories have reached record lows on several occasions this year, giving sustained support to refining margins and retail prices. Current stocks are at the lowest level at the end of October for over 40 years, and yet the US continues to export to Latin America.
On October 30th the Russian Federation suspended their participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Instead of freezing the current backlog of laden vessels, Turkish and UN delegations have instead reacted swiftly by increasing inspections in the Marmara Sea.
European road fuels demand to perform better than the last two, pandemic-plagued, years with European governments shying away from re-introducing movement restrictions this fall. However, diesel demand is not going to benefit much from this, as manufacturing activity across Europe is going through its worst month since the start of the pandemic.
Kpler launches a crude supply and demand assessment tool to help crude market professionals and downstream consumers better navigate the turbulent and uncertain global crude markets.
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The Black Sea is one of the regions the early users of Kpler Grains & Oilseeds watch the most. Let's have a look at a few interesting moves identified by Madeleine Overgaard, Grains Analyst.
German refiners have begun phasing out Russian-origin imports in advance of EU-27 sanctions on Russian crude, resulting in a reshuffling of crude and condensate flows and a rise in seaborne imports into the country.
Australia's refined product imports have surged in the first nine months of the year, as our flow data show. However, as the region becomes increasingly import reliant, and trade flows change, we would not be surprised to see the region competing for volumes to ensure its energy needs are met.
The risk of further cuts to Russian pipeline gas supplies to the European Union has increased since yesterday after Russia’s state-owned gas producer Gazprom warned that Russia could impose sanctions against Ukraine’s Naftogaz.
Trade flow volatility key driver for new offering aimed to mitigate food security challenges.
Acquisition will springboard Kpler’s offering into power data and analytics.
Amidst the sanctions omposed to Russia by the United States and Western allies, increased attention has been placed on Russian crude flows, especially on the reshuffling of their voyages and potential diversions or distressed cargoes. At Kpler, the market data analyst team uses a combination of proprietary data, tracking algorithms, market information, port reports and a robust methodology to track these evolving flows.
Kpler obtains the exclusive right to combine IIR Energy’s refinery data with its own flows and inventories data, to create new exclusive products.
Germany is the EU’s largest consumer of Russian natural gas but the threat of weaponizing Russian supplies as we approach winter. To put the volumes at stake into perspective, this article provides a quantitative assessment of the pre-war baseline, the current status quo, as well as possible future developments. Our conclusion examines the degree to which measures that are currently being taken by Germany can counter cuts in Russian supply.
Kuwait's Al-Zour Refinery has started operations at one of its CDUs a few days ago. The 615 kbd refinery is one of the largest globally, representing the most significant addition to global refining capacity in years and the largest addition until Nigeria’s Dangote plant eventually starts up later this decade.
As the United States is establishing itself as one of the world’s top crude oil exporters and getting its oil a wide range of destinations, it is increasingly important to have accurate and timely information on American crude export flows, especially at a time when a tightly supplied market riddled with geopolitical uncertainty.
The investment represents the first external fundraising initiative for Kpler which had been bootstrapped since its foundation in 2014.
Since the invasion, there has been an increase in the number of vessels operating in the Black Sea with lost AIS signals for one day or more, but there is no indication yet that this increase is linked to suspicious behaviour including covert ship-to-ship (STS) activity.
European security of gas supply is a topic that won't be going away any time soon. In this article, we discuss the latest proposals by the European Commission to introduce a 80% gas storage target by 1 November and Friday's deal between US and the Europe Union to increase LNG supplies by 15 bcm this year.
JBC Energy is Kpler’s second acquisition in less than a year.
The fallout from the war in Ukraine is causing supply tightness across a number of commodities. Ammonia might be the most impacted of all.
As Russian crude oil exports could decrease by 1.5 mbd from next month onwards according to our estimates, we look to what extent US shale production could offset the impact thanks to its business model with high flexibility and reactivity.
A few laden Yamal LNG-chartered vessels that were earlier signalling their arrival at ports in France and Spain are waiting for orders to sail to new destinations suggesting a pre-emptive move by Yamal LNG ahead of a possible ban by the EU on Russian ships entering its ports.
As oil prices soar to new multi-year highs, US consumers are having to deal with rising gasoline prices along with widespread inflation elsewhere. While the US administration appears unwilling to stimulate and incentivize domestic oil production, comparatively cheap natural gas is giving refiners one less cause for concern.
The Russian war in Ukraine is in its seventh day and financial sanctions on Russian individuals and banks are set to cripple the financial sector. Energy exports have not been the target of sanctions and even though the effect has made buyers and shippers wary, trade volumes have been unmoved so far as current loadings would have traded and had vessels fixed before the invasion. But, with Urals hitting a new record discount to Brent, finding buyers over the coming weeks is set to become increasingly difficult.
The war in Ukraine has quickly highlighted the fragility of grain markets. Prices have responded to the upside as a result. While loading disruptions have yet to surface, strict sanctions, a Russian agreement with China and disappointing Ukrainian yields are all likely to weigh on Black Sea loadings as the harvest season approaches in Q3. Med purchasers are poised to feel the biggest impacts, albeit the United States could help to fill the supply gap.
Russia’s Sovcomflot-owned 172,600 m3 Christophe de Margerie ice-class LNG carrier has diverted away from the UK and is sailing to France’s 8 mtpa Montoir LNG receiving facility, following the UK’s decision to ban ships with Russian connections entry to its ports.
In this update Alex Booth, Kpler's Head of Research comments on the developments through the day in Ukraine and the potential market and geopolitical ramifications.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has put on ice the certification of the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline following President Putin’s decision to order troops into the Donbas region of Ukraine on “peacekeeping duties”.
With spot LNG prices trading at record highs and roughly three times higher than last winter, plant operators have had a financial incentive to push output at liquefaction plants this winter.
Last week, we gave a webinar that focused on our expectations for US shale, Canadian and Gulf of Mexico oil production in 2022. We then leveraged these projections to forecast US crude exports for this year, as well as where that growth should come from.
Callie Gullett, Inventories Senior Product Manager at Kpler, joined Arthur, Head of Communication & PR, for a chat about her journey and role in the company.
Negative round trip rates are a clear signal of vessel oversupply in the Atlantic. With the arbitrage likely to favour Europe over the coming months the market could move even lower but a sustained period of below zero rates is unlikely to persist.
European Gasoil imports have fallen to an 11-month low, despite this being the peak demand season. A mild winter in most of the region has combined with faltering demand recovery, meaning just 7.5 million tonnes were imported in January 2022.
While a full ban on Russian oil exports would undoubtedly have a severe impact on the Russian economy, it would also cause widespread disruption to the global oil market. Europe would be the worst affected, relying on both Russian crude and product to a large extent.
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Violent clashes between protesters, police and the army broke out in Kazakhstan after the government lifted its price cap on LPG, which is widely used as a motor fuel in the country.
A case study showing how to use Kpler’s proprietary data for better analysis of long-term freight dynamics in the Asian LNG market
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Louise Mosseline explains why now was the right time to define the company’s values as Kpler continues to grow, and how this was achieved.
India’s LNG imports are expected to fall back to 2019 levels this year, with arrivals in November dropping to the lowest level since April 2020.
The impact of China's restrictions on AIS data transfer has been minimal to negligible for Kpler as we are not reliant on any one source of base data.
No matter the upcoming election's outcome in Lybia, continued friction between the warring factions controlling the oil industry means higher production will likely remain elusive.
Tracking on Saras refinery runs in Q3 shows that the company is likley to miss its quarterly guidance
The LNG supply crunch, paired with historically weak hydropower output has incentivized Chile to substitute towards more gasoil/diesel sourced from abroad.
In this research piece, Matt Wright focuses on the recent spike in dry bulk freight rates, supported by the surging demand for coal. On its own, coal is unlikely to have propelled rates to the levels seen this month, but in conjunction with covid-related port delays and higher demand for dry bulk commodities as economic output recovered this year, vessel supply has crossed a tipping point into a severe shortage.
Japan’s LNG stocks rose well-above previous year levels in September as the country faces the prospect of another cold winter. Despite high spot cargo availability and record low spot LNG prices last summer, the country failed to build adequate inventories ahead of winter 2020-21, causing a rush to secure expensive last-minute supplies when cold weather hit in January.
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As Cushing, OK stocks continue to trend towards historic lows, having access to the most accurate and timely data on the market is vital. Kpler's Cushing Drone Inventories uses advanced imagery detection and AI, to provide the clearest insights into storage and capacity levels at the WTI delivery hub before the EIA and competitors.
With less than a third of the month to go, Russian grade crude exports are hovering around 2.9 mbd, the slowest pace since March.
The situation in Southern Louisiana continues to show slow improvements following Hurricane Ida, which made landfall just under two weeks ago.
Acquisition strengthens Kpler as the leading provider of data & analytics to the global commodity sector.
[NEWS] Malaysia’s state-owned Petronas is seeking to exercise its right to reduce contractual deliveries this winter to buyers with offtake from the Malaysia LNG (MLNG) 3 joint venture that comprises the firm’s 29.3 million tonnes a year (mtpa) Bintulu LNG export complex in Sarawak due to gas supply issues.
Port congestion in China has pushed Capesize rates to a multi-year high creating a shortage of ballasters returning to Brazil. But long term, cooling demand from China, should see levels drop.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract hit a record high on Aug.16 before collapsing later in the week. This blog explains the reasons behind the rise and fall.
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At the core of any fundamental market analysis lies supply and demand of the asset. Higher demand with the same supply results in higher prices and vice-versa. Asset or fleet utilization is one way to measure the supply and demand balance and in turn the market price. It is a measure of the actual use of an asset divided by the number of assets available to use
Kpler announces the appointment of Mark Cunningham as Chief Financial Officer.
Overnight on Tuesday, the container Ship Ever Given ran aground in a southern part of the Suez Canal, a rare event in the history of the waterway. The potential for a rapid build-up of liquid and gas tankers in the region is marked with multiple laden vessels now indicating delays for Suez transit. As of Wednesday morning there were seven vessels carrying crude, 15 carrying refined products, five LNG vessels and two LPG carriers either sat waiting or approaching the canal. While attempts to clear the ship from the canal continue, this queue will continue to build. A salvage squad from the Netherlands will attempt to dislodge the ship beginning Thursday.
Having up to the minute visibility on market developments is key to predicting movements in supply and demand that can impact price. As market players try to keep track of the country’s imports in near real time, many struggle to do so due to the increase in the use of dark vessels shipping sanctioned oil. We uncover how China imports from Iran has increased and how you how to track these to gain an edge in the market.
Accurately tracking flows of cargoes in commodity markets has been a challenge for a long time. Kpler has been a pioneer in developing the technology to accurately track commodity market flows. However, some countries are using a variety of techniques to disguise some cargo movements such as switching AIS signals or Ship to Ship transfers. Kpler team of analysts are able to identify these bringing light to the hidden moves of the market.
The release of a new grade of oil influences supply and demand. Market players and financial players need to plana head of market movements to minimise potential negative impact and maximise profit. In these circumstances there is always a layer of uncertainty with regards to how these events can unfold. Here we will look at Iraq's Basrah Medium as an example and what happened in similar past events and how players can prepare ahead.
Congestion events can impact supply and demand and become a major issue for all market players. Being able to identify them on time can provide an edge in the trading process.
Iron ore prices have soared to a nine-year high driven by strong government stimulus measures in China and constrained Brazilian supply, but the elevated prices seem to have a limited effect in pushing miners to increase supplies due to many factors. Our data shows that, in 2020, seaborne iron ore exports to all countries increased 3.2% to 1,574 Mt. The top four iron ore producers (Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP and FMG), which account for 69.7% of the global seaborne market share in 2020, had their total exports almost flat in both Q4(288.2 Mt) and the past year(1098 Mt).
Kpler announces the appointment of Richard Quin as Chief Strategy Officer.
In this webinar Clark Chahine, our head of product and Gaspard Duguet our product manager are presenting the different use cases of how to integrate Kpler data into your workflows by using the Terminal/Web app, the Excel add in and the API/SDK.
As we have recently intensified our recruitment efforts, we would like to turn the spotlight to Manuel, who is Global Recruitment Manager at Kpler - if you apply to Kpler, he might be the first person you talk to!
Wholly owned by Saras, the Sarroch refinery is one of the largest in Europe, accounting for over 20% of Italy’s total refining capacity, with maximum throughput of 300 kbd. The refinery delivers much of its output to Italy (25%), Spain (10%) and France (12%), making it a prescient indicator of European oil consumption.
Kpler’s business development team operates in all key commodity hubs with the mission of handling interactions between Kpler and the wider industry ecosystem. Let’s meet today with Dave Friedman, our “bizdev” man in the Middle East region.
Here's an example on how to leverage Kpler's data. In the case-study below, the olefins desk analysts show how to use our data to examine the progress of Morgan's Point terminal.
Three weeks after the release of our new Freight Intelligence product, we would like to introduce Shruti Bansal, Freight Senior Product Manager at Kpler.
Kpler's products are built and enhanced within our Paris and Singapore locations, comprising more than 35 engineers and data scientists. Gen Yang represents a key part of this development team.
A message to our clients and partners from François Cazor, CEO of Kpler.
If you are looking for someone who has been at the forefront of Kpler’s tremendous development, this is Sharlene Tan! Originally from Singapore, Sharlene is the very first local employee hired at our APAC headquarters.
